①Review of the development of solar photovoltaic market
In 2005, the world’s solar energy industry sold 1.7GW of photovoltaic power, nearly twice that of nuclear power generation. The value of power generation reached 5.8 billion euros.
According to the information disclosed in the 2007 Solar Power Conference held in Long Beach, California, in September 2007, solar photovoltaic power generation in 2006 increased by 41% over the previous year to 2520MW. In 2006, the world’s photovoltaic facility capacity was 1,774MW, an increase over the previous year 19%. In 2006, Germany accounted for 55% of the 1,774MW capacity of photovoltaic installations in the world, Japan accounted for 17%, other EU countries accounted for 11%, the United States accounted for 8%, and the rest of the world accounted for 9%. In 2006, the production of photovoltaic cells was dominated by Japan, accounting for 37% of the total cell production. However, Germany’s photovoltaic cell production still accounts for 55% of the world’s total, at 960MW. Japan and Germany are both leading countries in photovoltaic cell production. In 2006, the output of solar cell modules in Japan declined, and its market share decreased by 7%, while production in the United States increased by 30%, Europe increased by 42%, and Spain increased by more than 200%.
In 1999, the United States had a leading position in photovoltaic sales, and by 2007, Japan accounted for the largest share of sales.
According to statistics released by the Solar Power Association (SPA, SolarPower Association), the use of solar energy by public utilities doubled in 2008. Statistics from SolarBuzz show that the world’s solar photovoltaic facilities have increased from 2826MW in 2007 to 5948MW in 2008, an increase of 110% over 2007. In 2008, the world’s PV industrial operating income reached 37.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 11% over the previous year, as shown in Figure 1.
In terms of the solar energy market, according to statistics from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2008, only the top two markets, Spain and Germany accounted for 72.9% of the world’s total market, and the top ten markets accounted for 96.5%. Spain accounted for 45% of the global solar market in 2008 and 21% of the cumulative installation capacity.
In terms of the developing solar power market, the fastest-growing markets with annual installations exceeding 10MW include: the Czech Republic, which has increased by nearly 11 times from 5MW in 2007 to 54MW in 2008 (it will increase by 48% in 2009 to reach 80MW); Greece From 3MW in 2007 to 15MW in 2008; South Korea, more than 5 times from 50MW in 2007 to 258MW in 2008; Spain, from 526MW in 2007 to 2.5GW in 2008; Italy , Which has quadrupled from 60MW in 2007 to 271MW in 2008.
Although the economic crisis at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 had a certain impact on global renewable energy and energy efficiency, there have been strong signs of recovery. After a major decline in investment in the second half of 2008 (10% in the third quarter and 23% in the fourth quarter), the decline continued in the first quarter of 2009 (47% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008). This trend has been reversed in the second quarter of 2009 (the second quarter of 2009 increased by 83% compared to the first quarter).
②The solar photovoltaic market of countries (regions) in the world
Market research institutions released a report that in 2008, the photovoltaic cell and module manufacturing equipment market (including thin-film cell equipment) sales reached 4.4 billion U.S. dollars. The solar energy industry continued to develop and new production capacity was continuously added. Due to the rise of various thin-film technologies and the first mass production in 2008, the equipment market has grown rapidly, prompting equipment suppliers to also create new revenue records.
The situation of the solar photovoltaic power generation market in some countries of the Economic Cooperation Organization (OECD) is as follows:
Italy: In 2008, solar photovoltaic power generation reached 150MW, and the installed capacity will double every year in the next two years. Most solar PV installations in the country are still less than 20MW.
Greece: Market development mainly depends on newly promulgated laws. It reached 10Mw in 2008. It is expected that the market will expand at least 10 times within 20 years.
France: The goal is to increase from 45MW in 2007 to 1.1GW in 2012 and 4.9MW in 2020.
Spain: The goal by 2020 is to reach 10Gw.
Germany: The market size increased from 1100W in 2007 to approximately 1375MW in 2008.
Portugal: A large 42MW facility was put into operation in 2008.
Austria: The capacity was 4MW in 2008.
United Kingdom: 2.7MW in 2007 and 10MW in 2008.
Switzerland: The capacity was set to 6.5MW in 2007.
Belgium: The installed capacity was 14MW in 2007 and 20-25MW in 2008.
Canada: The capacity was set at 13. 3MW in 2007, about 20MW in 2008, and 100~300MW in 2010.
United States: Reached 305MW in 2007 and approximately 400MW in 2008.
Australia: The capacity was set to 20MW in 2007, and the market approximately doubled in 2008.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) released annual market data. In 2008, the global photovoltaic market grew at least 5.5GW, compared to 2.4GW in 2007. Among them, according to the regional ranking, Spain ranked first, and Germany ranked second. In 2008, the total installed global solar energy reached 15GW, and in 2007 it was 9GW. Spain accounted for almost half of the new installations in 2008 with 2.5GW, Germany ranked second with 1.5GW, the United States ranked third with 342MW, South Korea ranked fourth with 274MW, Italy ranked fifth with 260MW, followed by the Czech Republic (51MW ), Portugal (50MW), Belgium (48MW) and France (46MW). In 2008, the output value of the global solar energy industry was as high as 37.1 billion U.S. dollars.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the EU PV market will grow from 4.5 GW in 2008 to 11 GW in 2013, the US PV market will grow from 0, 3 GW in 2008 to 4.5 GW in 2013, and the Japanese PV market will grow from 2008. From 0.3GW in 2013 to 1.7GW in 2013, the PV market in other parts of the world will grow from 0.5GW in 2008 to more than 5GW in 2013.
The European strategy consulting company Roland Berger analyzed in mid-August 2009 that the development of the western photovoltaic chemical industry is at a crossroads. While enjoying the unlimited business opportunities brought by the photovoltaic industry, it is also facing huge structural adjustments. The structural adjustment faced by photovoltaic product suppliers is that the growth in demand and production capacity will be transferred to Asia in the short term, especially in the future leading photovoltaic product producer China. This change has brought new challenges to Western photovoltaic chemical suppliers. Whether they can succeed in this potential market of trillions of euros in the future depends on the development strategy adopted.
The high investment and low efficiency of the photovoltaic industry directly restrict its competitiveness in terms of cost. At present, most of the world’s convenient installed capacity is concentrated in countries such as Germany and Japan that can provide substantial subsidies. The Asian markets represented by China and India are also gradually seeking opportunities from them. In 2007, Asia’s (except Japan) photovoltaic installed capacity accounted for only 2.8% of the global total, but its share is expected to exceed 40% in 2030, which is mainly driven by the strong economic growth of China and India. China plans to invest 3.2 billion euros in the next five years to provide 2 million home photovoltaic systems; the Indian federal government intends to use renewable energy to supply electricity to 18,000 remote villages. Therefore, the growth of photovoltaic product demand and production capacity will be transferred to Asia in the short term.
③Solar photovoltaic policy subsidies in countries (regions) around the world
The industry expects that the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation around 2015 will be comparable to that of conventional energy, but the current demand for photovoltaic market is still driven by policies. The subsidy policies of various countries can be divided into two categories:-The category is to directly subsidize the installation of photovoltaic systems, such as Japan: the first category is to set the on-grid electricity price of photovoltaic power generation. This method has shown great power in Germany, Spain and other countries. . Stimulated the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry. In addition, for example, the state of California, the United States, mixed the implementation of the two policies.
The Japanese government successfully implemented rounds of subsidies from 1994 to 2003, which promoted the cumulative installation of photovoltaics in Japan to 1,100MW in 2004, making it the country with the largest photovoltaic capacity in the world at that time.
In 2004, the German government initiated the feed-in tariff law, the well-known EEG Act, which led to a surge in photovoltaic installations in Germany. The initial feed-in tariff was 3 times the retail price or 8 times the industrial price. The price of photovoltaic systems is fixed for 20 years after installation, but it is postponed for one year, and the fixed price is reduced by a certain ratio. After this, Spain, Italy, Greece, and France have also introduced feed-in tariff law. And the degree of subsidy is even higher than that of Germany. rich.
In 2006, California State of the United States began to implement a subsidy program that mixed two support policies. It implemented investment subsidies or feed-in tariffs for small and medium-sized systems, and implemented feed-in tariffs for large-scale systems. The initial feed-in tariff was $0.39/(kW·h). 5 years, decreasing year by year.
The investment subsidy law increases fiscal expenditures, thereby increasing the burden of tax income, but this method is very convenient to implement. The feed-in tariff method makes photovoltaic subsidies borne by consumers of electric utilities, and pays more attention to the actual effect of photovoltaic power generation, but it increases the management burden. In addition, the investment subsidy law mainly focuses on the capacity of equipment installation, ignoring the actual operation of the equipment, while the feed-in tariff method more effectively promotes the use of photovoltaic equipment.